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Child and working-age poverty in Northern Ireland over the next decade: an update

Download Child and working-age poverty in Northern Ireland over the next decade: an update

Series: IFS briefing note; BN144

Briefing - see abstract

Author(s): Browne, James; Hood, Andrew; Joyce, Robert

Publisher: Institute for Fiscal Studies

Published: January 2014

Subjects: Children and Young People; Families; Poverty Alleviation Welfare Benefits and Financial Inclusion

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Abstract

This briefing note updates previous IFS projections of child and working-age poverty in Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole from 2012–13 to 2017–18, and in 2020–21. These projections take into account revised macroeconomic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published alongside Budget 2013, new forecasts of employment and earnings growth provided by Oxford Economics, and new tax and benefit policy announcements, and make use of more recent data on the UK household population. The broad pattern of results from previous projections remains the same. Child poverty is projected to rise relatively quickly between 2011–12 and 2014–15, increase slightly between 2014–15 and 2017–18 as more households benefit from the introduction of universal credit, before increasing more rapidly in the latter part of the decade. Poverty among working-age non-parents is projected to continue its gradual upward trend of the last 30 years.

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